Exclusive data on GLP-1’s impact on UK food and drink consumption

Dismissed as a celebrity fad and an out-of-reach proposition for the bulk of core consumers, the food and drink industry has largely looked the other way amid the rapid rise of weight-loss drugs, other than a smattering of niche ‘GLP-1 friendly’ launches.

But – four years after the approval of Wegovy in the US first propelled the drugs into the mainstream dieting dialogue – there is now emerging data suggesting they need to start paying far closer attention.

Two US studies published in December 2024, one from Cornell University and market research firm Numerator and another from Circana, made headlines when they unveiled the striking impact GLP-1s are already having on the shopping habits of millions of users.

And here in the UK, though in the far earlier stages of adoption, the results of a Kantar Worldpanel survey shared exclusively with The Grocer suggest we’re heading down a very similar path.

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In fact, on both sides of the Atlantic, the data paints a picture of millions not only spending less but also overhauling the contents of their weekly shopping baskets as a result of GLP-1’s impact.

So, what exactly can we say about how GLP-1s may transform grocery going forward – and with what confidence? And will it be enough to get manufacturers, brands and retailers to start taking the shift seriously?

The US has led the charge on GLP-1s for weight loss. The market reached around $50bn by the end of 2024 and is forecast to double by the end of the decade, according to Morgan Stanley.

But despite this meteoric growth, there had been a lack of concrete evidence until now to back up claims around how usage could impact food demand, says Sylvia Hristakeva, assistant professor at Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business.

“We’ve known these drugs are important but outside of anecdotal evidence, we couldn’t find any clear picture of how they might be affecting the grocery store world,” she says.

This led Hristakeva and her colleagues to collaborate with Numerator on the first “systematic evaluation” of how the drug’s users compare to standard American shoppers, using a combination of surveys and transactional data across 40 grocery categories.

What they found was pretty striking.

Grocery spend on the decline

In households with at least one member taking GLP-1s there was an average reduction of 5.5% on how much they spent on groceries within the first six months of adoption, a figure that rose to 8.6% across higher-income households.

That might sound lower than you’d expect given GLP-1s are said to slash appetites by about a third, admits Hristakeva, but there may only be one person in a household on the drug.

Moreover, based on 2023 household expenditure figures compiled by the US Department of Agriculture, it still equates to a loss for the grocery sector of roughly $500 per middle-income household – or hundreds of millions of dollars when you consider there are nearly 15 million estimated users in the US already.

The picture in the UK

Though less pronounced, a similar divide – between users and non-users – is happening in the UK. According to a Kantar Worldpanel survey of nearly 12,000 UK households, not only have GLP-1 users here nearly doubled in the past year – from 2.3% to 4.1% of households – they’re reducing their grocery bills by 2.2ppts more than non-users.

This dip in topline spending was only one of the “bombshells” that emerged from the survey, says Chantel Kennaugh, head of public sector and nutrition at Kantar Worldpanel. Two-thirds (64%) said they were snacking less as a result of the medication, 23% had cut back on how much alcohol they drank, and others were scaling back on indulgent treats such as pizza (63%) and takeaways (74%). “We’re also seeing categories like peanut butter being affected because they rely on these heavier ‘host’ foods that people may drop,” says Kennaugh. “So, this isn’t just affecting the categories you’d think of, it’s wider.”

Kantar found that takeaways are being restricted by GLP-1 users, with 63% actively trying to reduce the amount of pizza they consume

Both US studies tracked similar patterns in American users. Findings from the Cornell-Numerator study, which included purchase data, found GLP-1 users spent less on numerous ‘ultra-processed’ calorie-dense categories, including savoury snacks, sweets and sweet bakery items. There was also an 8.6% decline in their spending on out-of-home foods, including splurging at coffee shops and fast-food chains. Salad dressings, spreads, wine and ice cream were also among the categories that saw marked declines in spend among users in Circana’s research.

On the flipside, nutrient-dense options such as yoghurt, fresh produce, and nutrition bars were least affected according to Cornell-Numerator (seeing no “statistically significant” uptick in spend, says Hristakeva). Products that helped alleviate the side effects of GLP-1s were also more likely to make it into users’ shopping trollies, found Circana, including mints and gum, which could be used to ease a dry mouth, and teas that may help soothe stomach discomfort.

Much of this tallies with what we know about the physiological impact of GLP-1s, points out Tom Curtis, clinical head of obesity at weight management service Voy. “The headline is definitely that people naturally eat somewhere between 25% and 35% fewer calories when they’re on the drugs,” he says. “That equates to around 500 fewer calories a day.”

The drugs achieve this by triggering delayed gastric emptying in users (ie their stomach holds onto food for longer, making them feel full) and by working on the brainstem and hypothalamic hunger drive pathways – which signal when to stop and start eating – to tell them they’re fuller quicker. And then “there’s this shift in food preferences”, Curtis adds, with users less inclined to reach for high-fat, high-calorie foods they previously craved. That element can take people by surprise.

“They expect to lose weight, but they always find it quite novel the change in their food preferences,” says Curtis. Exactly why these more subtle changes occur isn’t quite as clear-cut from a scientific perspective, he admits. “There’s some evidence that your taste receptors alter in a way that makes [these foods] unpalatable.” There will also be behavioural changes at play when you’re trying to lose weight, but “it’s still very much an active research channel”, he adds.

The food sector should arguably leave the ‘why’ to scientists, though, and concern themselves with the ‘what’. Primarily, what to do next.

“At this stage, even just understanding the scale – who’s taking the drugs, the categories that are affected and how people are feeling about the drugs – is important,” says Kennaugh. “I’ve had certain companies say to me: ‘oh, that’s not relevant for us right now’. But it is.”

“The demand for these drugs is beyond anything I’ve seen in my medical career,” adds Curtis. “There’s a lot of work to be done by the sector to understand what individuals want when they’re on these medications.”

By doing so they could turn a sizeable risk into an opportunity. A significant reduction in calorie intake, for example, is likely to drive demand for pre-portioned, nutrient-dense foods that ensure users don’t end up deficient in key vitamins and minerals. This has underpinned a smattering of ‘GLP-1 friendly’ launches in the past 12 months, such as ready meals and protein shots. But brands needn’t completely upend existing product pipelines to respond.

After all, “there’s a significant parallel between general health trends and the impact of GLP-1 medications on consumption habits”, points out Toby Clark, VP of Mintel Consulting in EMEA. “Both are driving consumers toward more nutrient-dense, portion-controlled and health-focused choices.”

“It goes hand in hand with the conversation around UPFs,” agrees food industry consultant Lucy Wager. “These are things people are talking about anyway – more plant-based, more whole foods, etc. In that way it’s more of the same, but coupled with smaller portion sizes and less frequent eating.”

Next-gen snacks that focus on whole foods, natural processing methods like fermentation and high fibre content, alongside nutrient-dense meal solutions, high-protein supplements and hydration aids are all potential areas to explore, adds Sam Shaw, strategy director at Canvas8.

“There’s much to be excited about here for those who see this for what it is: a strategic opportunity for brands to align their product development with the evolving landscape of health, wellness and dietary preferences,” he says. And crucially, unlike the US, the UK has a window of opportunity in which to prepare here, he adds.

Perhaps it’s understandable the food industry has been hesitant to respond in any material way to GLP-1s. Weight-loss trends hardly have a reputation for staying power, after all. But that strategy is looking precarious.

“Such caution is a double-edged sword,” warns Clark. “It helps minimise the short-term risk but it does mean there’s a danger of missing out. The fate of WeightWatchers in the US, which has just filed for bankruptcy, shows there’s a very real chance some household names could face their own ‘Kodak moment’ if they fumble their response to GLP-1 drugs.”